Atlanta has received twice the normal amount of rain through the first nine days of the month, and there is more heavy rain heading our way this week. Some rivers and streams are still flooding from last week's rain and snow, and that situation will likely get worse this week.
The best chance of heavy rain is in the north Georgia mountains through Thursday. Some counties could get 3-4" of rain in that time frame. Rain totals near the Atlanta Metro are likely to be lower, but any rain at this point could push rivers, streams and creeks above flood stage. At this point, 1-2" of rain is most likely in Atlanta.
The culprit for the heavy rain threat is a stationary front that will meander around north Georgia until Wednesday night when a cold front approaches from the west. The stationary front represents the boundary between chilly air to the north and warm/humid air to the south. It serves as the railroad tracks for the rain train over the Southeastern United States this week. There is likely to be a sharp cutoff between less than an inch of rain and 3-4" of rain. That cutoff will not be far from Atlanta.
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Wednesday morning. There is a low risk of severe weather late Wednesday into Thursday. We will watch that threat closely.
It will not be raining all the time from Monday afternoon through Thursday. There will be extended dry stretches. However, rain is possible at any time until late Thursday afternoon, and we should be able to pinpoint the timing of the rain about 12-24 hours in advance.
The weather pattern looks wet, but not quite as rainy, next week. By the end of February, we're looking at approximately twice the normal rain in Atlanta, and more than that in the mountains.