We are enjoying some beautiful weather in the middle of this week, but that is likely to change this weekend, and an active storm track brings more rain chances before and around Thanksgiving. The jet stream will likely carry three storm systems through North Georgia between Saturday and Black Friday.
The first storm arrives on Saturday and will likely bring showers for a good chunk of the day. Rain may develop around 8 am in the Atlanta area and could last until mid-afternoon. It will develop later in Athens, and there is a good chance that the tailgate and UGA vs. Texas A&M game will be soggy. Showers will likely move out by the end of the game. Expect dry and cool weather Sunday and Monday before the next disturbance arrives in the middle of next week.
Rain timing next week is very important with the huge travel days leading up to Thanksgiving. Right now, it looks like the best chance of rain is late Tuesday into early Wednesday. If the front comes through late at night, that's probably the best case scenario for travelers with neither Tuesday or Wednesday being very rough weather-wise.
It's still pretty early, but the long-range outlook for Thanksgiving and Black Friday suggests another storm system arriving in that time frame. The way it looks now, nearly 10 days in advance, is for rain to arrive late on Thanksgiving and last into at least part of Black Friday. That's not great news for anyone heading out for the early deals.
How confident am I in these storms actually materializing? Actually, fairly confident. It will rain on Saturday, and the Tuesday PM - Wednesday AM system has been hinted at by the computer models for several days. Since it's so far out, the confidence is lower in the potential for rain late next week, but I think it's at least 50/50 that there will be some wet weather to deal with.